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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-08-15T17:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-15T17:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21205/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 13078 (near S25W02). The source signature of this CME is visible in SDO AIA 193/304 starting around 2022-08-15T14:33Z. It is visible towards the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 but not in STEREO A COR2 due to an ongoing outage.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-18T19:32Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

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% Compiled module: EAM
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Most pr. speed =  625.0 km/sec
The EAM version you are running is: v2
u_r =      683.391
Acceleration:     -0.919153
Duration in seconds:        267626.80
Duration in days:        3.0975324
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Acceleration of the CME:  -0.92 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  437.4 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 18/08/2022 Time: 19:32 UT
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Lead Time: 36.45 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-08-17T07:05Z

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